Integrating LCA and Regression Modeling for Sustainable Supply Chain Decisions: A Case Study on Antibacterial Gel

Sustainable production has become a priority for industry and policymakers driven by the urgent need to address environmental pressures such as global warming, declining natural resources, and stricter sustainability policies. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has become an essential method for measuring the ecological footprint of products across their entire life cycle. This study applies LCA to an antibacterial gel supply chain, based on real data from a Mexican company, following the ISO 14040/44 framework, using GaBi software and the ReCiPe 2016 methodology. The analysis covers three distinct scenarios to assess environmental impacts at both midpoint and endpoint stages: the entire supply chain, the upstream phases of extraction and manufacturing, and the logistics component. Results reveal that climate change, fossil depletion, and terrestrial ecotoxicity are the most critical impact categories, with raw material sourcing contributing approximately 99% of the total burden. A regression model is also developed to estimate transport-related emissions based on quantity and distance. The study offers actionable insights for reducing environmental impacts in hygiene product manufacturing and demonstrates the value of LCA for guiding sustainable supply chain decisions.