Local Sea Surface Temperatures Modulate the Occurrence of Heavy Rainfall Events in the Galápagos Archipelago

Marc Kevin Schneider; Nazli Turini; Daniela Elisabet Ballari; Steve Darwin Bayas López; Byron Delgado Maldonaldo; Johanna Marlene Orellana Alvear; Benjamin Schmidt; Dieter Scherer; Jörg Bendix

doi:10.1029/2025GL117553

Local Sea Surface Temperatures Modulate the Occurrence of Heavy Rainfall Events in the Galápagos Archipelago

Marc Kevin Schneider (First Author)
, Nazli Turini
, Daniela Elisabet Ballari
, Steve Darwin Bayas López
, Byron Delgado Maldonaldo
, Johanna Marlene Orellana Alvear
, Benjamin Schmidt
, Dieter Scherer
, Jörg Bendix (Last Author)

University of Marburg
Universidad del Azuay
Parque Nacional Galápagos
Charles Darwin Foundation
Technical University of Berlin

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events (HRE) globally. In the Galápagos Islands, HREs have caused severe impacts such as infrastructure loss and ecosystem damage, yet their occurrence remains poorly understood. This study identifies 137 HREs between 1985 and 2024 and demonstrates that local sea surface temperatures (SST) from a new regional SST index, called the Galápagos Regional Niño Index (GReNI), correlate more strongly with HREs than widely used large-scale El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. We analyzed the rainfall and 10 m wind fields from the Galápagos Archipelago Refined Analysis data set and find that while HREs occur outside Pacific-wide El Niño events, they are generally strongest during local GReNI El Niño-like phases. These findings highlight how local SST anomalies influence mesoscale rainfall, suggesting local rather than large-scale SST are significant HRE modulators.

Original language	English
Article number	e2025GL117553
Pages (from-to)	1-11
Number of pages	11
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	52
Issue number	23
Early online date	4 Dec 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL117553
State	Published - 16 Dec 2025

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Keywords

ENSO
Galápagos archipelago
heavy rainfall
local SST

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10.1029/2025GL117553

Cite this

Schneider, M. K., Turini, N., Ballari, D. E., Bayas López, S. D., Delgado Maldonaldo, B., Orellana Alvear, J. M., Schmidt, B., Scherer, D., & Bendix, J. (2025). Local Sea Surface Temperatures Modulate the Occurrence of Heavy Rainfall Events in the Galápagos Archipelago. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(23), 1-11. Article e2025GL117553. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL117553

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abstract = "Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events (HRE) globally. In the Gal{\'a}pagos Islands, HREs have caused severe impacts such as infrastructure loss and ecosystem damage, yet their occurrence remains poorly understood. This study identifies 137 HREs between 1985 and 2024 and demonstrates that local sea surface temperatures (SST) from a new regional SST index, called the Gal{\'a}pagos Regional Ni{\~n}o Index (GReNI), correlate more strongly with HREs than widely used large-scale El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation indices. We analyzed the rainfall and 10 m wind fields from the Gal{\'a}pagos Archipelago Refined Analysis data set and find that while HREs occur outside Pacific-wide El Ni{\~n}o events, they are generally strongest during local GReNI El Ni{\~n}o-like phases. These findings highlight how local SST anomalies influence mesoscale rainfall, suggesting local rather than large-scale SST are significant HRE modulators.",

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T1 - Local Sea Surface Temperatures Modulate the Occurrence of Heavy Rainfall Events in the Galápagos Archipelago

AU - Schneider, Marc Kevin

AU - Turini, Nazli

AU - Ballari, Daniela Elisabet

AU - Bayas López, Steve Darwin

AU - Delgado Maldonaldo, Byron

AU - Orellana Alvear, Johanna Marlene

AU - Schmidt, Benjamin

AU - Scherer, Dieter

AU - Bendix, Jörg

PY - 2025/12/16

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N2 - Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events (HRE) globally. In the Galápagos Islands, HREs have caused severe impacts such as infrastructure loss and ecosystem damage, yet their occurrence remains poorly understood. This study identifies 137 HREs between 1985 and 2024 and demonstrates that local sea surface temperatures (SST) from a new regional SST index, called the Galápagos Regional Niño Index (GReNI), correlate more strongly with HREs than widely used large-scale El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. We analyzed the rainfall and 10 m wind fields from the Galápagos Archipelago Refined Analysis data set and find that while HREs occur outside Pacific-wide El Niño events, they are generally strongest during local GReNI El Niño-like phases. These findings highlight how local SST anomalies influence mesoscale rainfall, suggesting local rather than large-scale SST are significant HRE modulators.

AB - Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events (HRE) globally. In the Galápagos Islands, HREs have caused severe impacts such as infrastructure loss and ecosystem damage, yet their occurrence remains poorly understood. This study identifies 137 HREs between 1985 and 2024 and demonstrates that local sea surface temperatures (SST) from a new regional SST index, called the Galápagos Regional Niño Index (GReNI), correlate more strongly with HREs than widely used large-scale El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. We analyzed the rainfall and 10 m wind fields from the Galápagos Archipelago Refined Analysis data set and find that while HREs occur outside Pacific-wide El Niño events, they are generally strongest during local GReNI El Niño-like phases. These findings highlight how local SST anomalies influence mesoscale rainfall, suggesting local rather than large-scale SST are significant HRE modulators.

KW - ENSO

KW - Galápagos archipelago

KW - heavy rainfall

KW - local SST

KW - ENSO

KW - Galápagos archipelago

KW - Heavy rainfall

KW - Local SST

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U2 - 10.1029/2025GL117553

DO - 10.1029/2025GL117553

M3 - Artículo

AN - SCOPUS:105024204777

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 52

SP - 1

EP - 11

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 23

M1 - e2025GL117553

ER -

Local Sea Surface Temperatures Modulate the Occurrence of Heavy Rainfall Events in the Galápagos Archipelago

Abstract

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Keywords

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