Applying hydrological modeling to unravel the effects of land use change on the runoff of a paramo ecosystem

To gain insights into the impact of afforestation on the hydrology of a mountain river basin, the Mpinos catchment was modeled to obtain parameters that represent pine land use. Thereafter, the parameters were applied in the Zhurucay catchment to answers the following questions: 1) How can the parameters of hydrological models subject to land use change be calibrated? 2) What is the impact on peaks, total flow, and baseflow when land use gradually changes from tussock grass to pine plantations? 3) Is the impact different when land use changes gradually from upstream to downstream (U-D) or downstream to upstream (D-U)? Based on our results, the total flow, baseflow, and peaks were reduced by 21%, 66%, and 21%, respectively. Overall, this study presents a calibration approach to predict the effects of land-use change prior to its occurrence.