Simulation of sustainable urban growth scenarios: the case of Cuenca - Ecuador

This research project aims to analyze and predict the spatial patterns of urban growth in the city of Cuenca, Ecuador, using CA-ANN predictive models (artificial cell automales and neuronal networks) for the years 2030 and 2050, in order to propose sustainable urban development strategies. Global urban growth, promoted by rapid urbanization and the increase in economic activities, has generated benefits in terms of quality of life, but also ecological threats such as loss of biodiversity and the deterioration of natural resources. In the case of Cuenca, the urbanization has tripled the urban area in less than 30 years, characterized by an expansion to the peripheries with low density, lack of public transport and dependence on the car. This disorderly growth reflects the common problem in many Latin American cities, where expansion has led to a marked socio -spatial segregation. The study is based on predictive simulation models, particularly the CA-ANN model, which has proven effective in other contexts to evaluate changes in land use and project urban expansion scenarios. The investigation aims to answer key questions about growth driving forces and how space patterns under sustainability scenarios will be affected. The methodology includes the detection of growth patterns, identification of driving forces, and the simulation of future scenarios to guide urban planning. This approach seeks to provide tools to improve territory management and planning in a context of rapid urban growth in Cuenca.

21st UNIVERSITY RESEARCH PROJECT COMPETITION