Group decision -making model for risk management and territory planning, based on mass movements generated by quantitative techniques. Study case: Azuay Province

Worldwide, mass movements (mm) are caused by natural disasters of great importance due to the human and economic losses they leave. This is due to a socio-economic vulnerability of developing countries and geological, geomorphological, hydrological, and climatological conditions of each area. Therefore, to talk about inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable cities, it is prevailing to have management systems that reduce risks based on territorial planning. However, the actions inherent in risk management by MM are limited by the complexity of the decision processes; Due to the multidimensionality of the elements involved, multiplicity of objectives, criteria to consider, difficulty identifying alternatives, uncertainty and their different origins, among other aspects. As well as a lack of integral understanding of the phenomenon in all its scales and dimensions. Therefore, this research proposal proposes the construction of a group Multicriterio decision making (TDMCG) from susceptibility to mm (MSMM). The MSMM allows the first step to understand the phenomenon through the analysis, modeling, classification and cartographic representation of the areas prone to the occurrence of MM and their conditioning factors. As well as, it constitutes an instrument of decision making per-se. This model will be developed through quantitative techniques of Machine Learning that will eliminate the subjectivity of qualitative models based on the opinion of experts and still used for territorial planning in Ecuador. The TDMCG model, on the other hand, will be based on Fuzzy-Topsis techniques, as well as science, technology and innovation (PCTI) policies that allow to focus efforts on the phases of prevention, monitoring and mitigation of risks by mm. The historical inventory of mass movements (IMM) constitutes a fundamental instrument for this research. This will be characterized in morphological, geological, environmental, social, climatological terms, among others, through in-situ techniques, passive cellar (radar interferometry) and active (orthofot analysis). This characterization, plus the results found by the team, in previous research, will allow the selection of the most suitable conditioning factors for the construction of MSMM. The IMM and the MSMM will supply the technical, environmental and social criteria for the TDMCG model. The results of the project and the information generated, will be disseminated through a geoportal, as a technological tool that integrates services based on geographic information systems and that represents a source of information and knowledge that facilitates the decision -making processes in risk management by MM and territorial planning. This research will use the province of Azuay as a study area, located in the Sierra Austral of Ecuador, crossed by the Andes mountain range and highly susceptible to MM.

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