EL NIÑO AND DROUGHT IN ECUADOR: A FUTURE ANALYSIS OF ITS CONNECTIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE

DROUGHT ARE AMONG THE MAIN ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES FACING THE WORLD IN THIS CENTURY. THESE CAUSE SEVERE SOCIAL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON DIFFERENT SECTORS OF THE POPULATION. IN A CONTEXT OF NATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY, THE PHENOMENON THAT MOST INFLUENCES DROUGHT IN ECUADOR IS EL NIÑO (ENSO). ENSO DYNAMICS, INCLUDING ITS FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY, ARE DEEPLY INFLUENCED BY CLIMATE CHANGE, WHICH CAN SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL DROUGHT PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE EVENTS. IN ECUADOR, THE CLIMATE RESPONSE TO ENSO PATTERNS IS COMPLEX, WITH MARKED REGIONAL DIFFERENCES. THIS PROJECT AIMS TO EXPAND KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ENSO CONDITIONS AND DROUGHT IN THE DIFFERENT CLIMATE ZONES OF ECUADOR, IDENTIFYING THE CHANGES FROM THE HISTORICAL PERIOD TO THE NEAR FUTURE. TO EXPLORE THESE RELATIONSHIPS, EMPIRICAL ENSO INDICES WILL BE GENERATED IN THE PRESENT AND FUTURE AND THE INTERACTIONS WITH DROUGHT, CHARACTERIZED BY INDICES DERIVED FROM A HYDROLOGICAL BALANCE BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, WILL BE ANALYZED. ALSO, CHANGES IN DROUGHT PATTERNS WILL BE ANALYZED FROM THE HISTORICAL PERIOD TO THE FUTURE PERIOD WITH DIFFERENT CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTION SCENARIOS. THE AREA OF STUDY CONSISTS OF THE CLIMATIC ZONES OF CONTINENTAL ECUADOR, CHARACTERIZED BY ITS COMPLEX OROGRAPHY AND ITS PARTICULAR LOCATION IN A TROPICAL AREA; ALSO, CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-MARKED CLIMATES ON THE COAST, MOUNTAINS AND EAST. THIS PROJECT WOULD ESTABLISH IT AS A PIONEER IN THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE OF DROUGHT IN ECUADOR, IN ADDITION IT WOULD CONSTITUTE A FIRST APPROACH IN THE STUDY OF CLIMATE RISK DUE TO DROUGHT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE. CONSEQUENTLY, A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF HOW EL NIÑO AND ITS FUTURE PROJECTIONS WILL INFLUENCE DROUGHT IN ECUADOR IS FUNDAMENTAL NOT ONLY FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, BUT ALSO FOR GENERATING ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION POLICIES THAT CAN REDUCE THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT AND ENVIRONMENT OF THESE EXTREME EVENTS IN THE COUNTRY.

XXII UNIVERSITY COMPETITION FOR RESEARCH PROJECTS