Design of the prototype of the Urban Land Value Observatory: applied analysis for appraisal management

The urban land market in Ecuador faces problems characterized by speculative practices, socio-spatial segregation and land scarcity. The absence of official data on real estate transactions and the systematic undervaluation in official cadastral appraisals limit market transparency and reduce the effectiveness of territorial public policies. This reality points out the need to implement monitoring instruments that strengthen evidence-based territorial management, a situation that is exacerbated by the lack of specialized observatories in the country and the existence of very few standardized methodologies for the analysis of real estate behavior. The project aims to develop a prototype web observatory of the value of urban land that integrates cadastral data to generate technical inputs aimed at strengthening the transparency of the real estate market and the design of public policies. The proposal adopts an approach focused on territorial equity and the mitigation of speculative practices, contributing to the sustainable urban development of the country through the democratization of access to reliable and updated territorial information.
The methodology is structured in five main components that combine quantitative analysis and technological development. The first component includes the critical systematization of sources specialized in the land market and real estate observatories to conceptually support the design of the observatory. The second contemplates the spatio-temporal analysis of zonal assessments and rates of the cantonal capitals of Ecuador between 2006 and 2024, applying time series techniques and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The third component focuses on the identification of explanatory variables
through the application of predictive models in case studies such as the cities of Cuenca and Loja, using machine learning techniques to model the behavior of the value of the
land. estimation of standard land values.
Finally, the project contemplates that, through the proposed methodology and the expected inputs, a benefit will be generated for the Decentralized Autonomous Governments, who will access tools to strengthen cadastral management and urban planning; the general population, through access to reliable information to exercise social control and academic institutions, as a source of data for research and subsequent projects, and finally, to the construction and real estate sector.

OUTSIDE THE CALL FOR PROPOSALS EXTERNAL FUNDS