Rain description and modeling through global weather information

The availability of rainwater is essential for the livelihood of life. Therefore, the understanding and predictability of this phenomenon is of vital importance. However, this understanding and prediction of rain is still a scientific challenge due to the inherent climate complexity, which implies intricate processes and interactions globally. This climatic complexity is even more prominent in Andean tropical areas such as the paute basin located in the Ecuadorian south. A way to synthesize the climate is to represent it through global climatic indicators and describe their relationships (teleconexions). These relationships allow to identify global controllers on the behavior of regional climate, and also enables the interpretation of dominant climatic processes. Subsequently, it is possible to integrate these controllers within a climate model (rain model) with the interest of improving predictive capacity on the one hand, and on the other hand, analyze the connection mechanisms between global scales and regional scales. Then, this project intends to model precipitation using simple approximation techniques under two considerations that contribute to the state of art on the subject. The first, a methodology that allows identifying global controllers on regional rain -using stochastic techniques of variables -dependent of a state. The second, the inclusion of these signals in an adequate comprehensive model that includes non -linearities inferred from identification -using transfer functions. The techniques will be applied on rain signals from a tropical Andean region (the paute basin) whose Andean climatic complexity, together with its energy importance, makes it a strategic area for Ecuador.

XVIII UNIVERSITY COMPETITION FOR RESEARCH PROJECTS